The cold winter of the battery

This winter, the cold is coming...　　In the face of the industry's major reshuffle, although the number of companies in the lead storage battery industry has fallen sharply, the production capacity is still expanding. Coupled with the price war provoked by several large companies, the industry has generally entered In a situation of meager profits and losses, with the rise of a new round of price wars, the industry has entered a cruel winter, which will even last for several years.　　 At the beginning of this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued 19 targets for the elimination of outdated production capacity in industrial sectors, including a lead-acid battery capacity of 20 million kVAh. On July 1, the 'Entry Requirements for Lead Battery Industry' was implemented. This document sets a large number of thresholds in site selection, equipment automation, and environmental protection. It is intended to eliminate outdated production capacity and prevent low-level redundant construction.　　Industry rectification actions have significantly reduced the number of lead battery companies. The number of lead-acid batteries has been reduced from about 3000 before the renovation to about 1000 now, and the size of the future enterprise will be reduced to about 300.　　 However, the reduction in the number of companies has not significantly changed the status quo of overcapacity. Some companies that have been retained in the remedial action have even begun to expand against the trend.　　As an industry giant, Tianneng Power (00819.HK) stated at the New Energy Electric Vehicle Industry Summit Forum that in the second half of this year and next year, the company's main strategy is to accelerate expansion, increase production capacity, and promote production. Among them, the distribution network in the secondary market is targeted at 1,200 this year and 1,500 next year.　　Automobile lead battery giant Camel (601311) expects that this year’s output will reach 12 million kVAh or more, while last year, this figure was only 9.26 million kVAh. According to reports, after investing nearly 1 billion yuan in large-scale transformation of the original production line, Camel will expand its production capacity in Guangxi and Jilin.　　 Yi Xiaobo, chairman of the National Lead-acid Battery Standardization Technical Committee, pointed out that the expansion of the industry is not completely blind. In the situation where the country vigorously rectifies the lead-acid battery industry and a large number of companies are forced to withdraw, the expansion of large companies is not only to fill market space, but also to seize market share. Of course, in the current situation of severe overcapacity, aggressive actions to conquer the city will undoubtedly make the entire industry worse.　　 In order to seize the market, a price war in the lead-acid battery market is unavoidably staged. Starting in April this year, several major brands have successively reduced their prices in order to boost sales. Subsequently, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises were involved, and the original price system was broken.　　 By the end of October, the price of batteries had dropped significantly from the beginning of the year. Taking 48V 12Ah battery as an example, the first-tier brand is about 360 yuan per group, and the second and third-tier brands are more than 300 yuan. At the beginning of the year, the first-line brands can sell for about 460 yuan, and the second and third-line brands can also sell for nearly 400 yuan per group. The current price has dropped by about 20%.　　 Shen Weixin, president of Jiangsu Suzhong Battery Technology Development Co., Ltd., told reporters that now, the selling price of lead-acid batteries is lower than the cost price, and the market is in chaos. Companies are cutting meat. 'The fat ones take longer to cut, and the thin ones are cut in a few strokes.' He said that the current outstanding problem is the insufficient efforts to rectify the industry. Not only are some companies that do not meet environmental protection standards are producing, but also some underground black workshops are also producing. They are unlicensed and undocumented, tax evasion, and tax evasion, which has caused a great deal to the market. The impact.　　 Camel's Secretary of the Board Wang Congqiang also said that if the market is rectified in strict accordance with the 'Lead Battery Industry Access Conditions　　 Ruida Futures Research Institute Xie Jike said that in the second half of the year, lead-acid battery companies are still under great pressure to destock. It is not ruled out that due to excessive inventory, leading lead-acid battery companies have begun a new round of price wars in order to seize market share.　　 Yi Xiaobo pointed out that almost the entire industry is losing money due to the price decline caused by the unsalable products. The lead-acid battery industry, which has experienced rapid development for ten years, is likely to be sluggish for a long period of time. It may even be 'cold' for about five years, facing a real 'severe winter'.　　 How long will the cold winter last...
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