Lead battery industry remediation does not change overcapacity

by:Power Kingdom     2021-04-26
Lead-acid batteries are currently the most widely used secondary batteries, which can be used as car starter batteries, electric vehicle power batteries and backup/energy storage power sources. Among them, car starter batteries are the largest application field. With the development of new battery technology, lead-acid batteries are facing threats from other alternative batteries such as lithium batteries. In the short term, we believe that there is no need to worry about being replaced in the field of automobile starting. Backup and energy storage batteries are only possible in the small and medium-capacity market. Power batteries The field will be the first to be replaced by lithium batteries, but the replacement process is also relatively slow.   The demand for power batteries is stable, and the price war continues. The slowdown in demand for electric bicycles, the gradual replacement of lithium batteries, and the expansion competition of the two oligarchs of Tianneng and Chaowei have led to a deteriorating competitive environment in the power battery market, and the shadow of price wars lingers. The current gross profit margin of power batteries is around 22%. Although the short-term peak season has ushered in a slight price increase, the pressure of price reduction after the peak season is still relatively large. For the first time, the lead-acid battery industry is given a “neutral” rating: in the long run, the overall demand growth rate of the lead-acid battery industry will be within 10%, and industry integration will be a long process. It is difficult for the industry to have overall investment opportunities, but we think there is still a structure Sexual opportunities. Comparing the three major downstream application markets of lead-acid batteries and considering market demand and profitability, we believe that car starter batteries are the best, communication batteries are the second, and power batteries are the worst. We are relatively optimistic about Camel, the leader in car start batteries, and Nandu Power, the leader in communication batteries.  Industry rectification does not change the pattern of overcapacity, and the increase in market concentration is slow. The environmental storm in 2011 led to the most severe remediation of the lead-acid battery industry in history. At present, the remediation of the industry is coming to an end. The production capacity of lead-acid batteries has recovered quickly, the industry operating rate has fallen below 60%, and the pattern of overcapacity remains. Dachang took advantage of the opportunity to actively expand production, especially power and starter battery companies. However, due to the resumption of production by a large number of companies, the production capacity concentration of industry leaders has not changed significantly. It is expected that the impact of industry remediation on market concentration will be Slow and long process.   The demand for car starter batteries has grown steadily, and the price has fallen. Benefiting from the continuous growth of automobile sales and the expansion of the base number of stocks, the growth rate of starter battery demand can be maintained at more than 10%. Starter batteries are divided into supporting and maintenance markets. The supporting market is dominated by five first-tier manufacturers. The competition pattern is stable, but the price is low and the profitability is weak. The maintenance market is very fragmented and fully competitive, but the price is high and the gross profit margin is relatively high. The level is above 20%. Due to the massive recovery of production capacity in the industry in 2012, starting batteries have fallen back to before the price increase. Taking into account the steady growth of demand and the competitive strategies and profitability of major manufacturers, the probability of maintaining stable prices of first-line brand batteries in the future is relatively high.   Communications 4G construction has accelerated, and the industry reshuffle has prompted battery prices to stabilize and rise. Since 2013, the construction of communications 4G has accelerated. It is expected that communications investment will grow by nearly double digits in the next two years, and communications batteries will also usher in a relatively high growth. The quality of communication battery products has prompted the industry to shuffle, and battery prices have bottomed out. The profitability of enterprises has shown an upward trend. In the future, leading communication batteries are expected to usher in both volume and price increases.
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