Battery price increase theory

Last Friday night, LME lead fell sharply, reversing the previous gains, and the scrap lead market price performance was sluggish; on July 22, Guangdong reduced lead was reported at 1,3000-13200 yuan/ton. Data show that on July 24, Sands’ supply under-reported at 15,150 yuan/ton, southern and Shuikoushan lead at 15,000 yuan/ton, and Tianma lead at 14,940 yuan/ton; the willingness of lead enterprises in Yunnan to sell has increased, and they continue to do more today. It is reported in the vicinity of 14,750 yuan/ton. Since February of this year, lead prices have been falling as a whole, from an average price of around RMB 15,800/ton to less than RMB 15,000/ton in July. Lead ingots account for about 75% of the cost of lead batteries. The sharp drop in the price of lead ingots has reduced the cost of batteries to a large extent, and there is no pressing impetus for battery price increases.　　 'From the perspective of Zhejiang, after several rounds of environmental protection remediation, the production capacity expansion or adjustment of big brands has accelerated, but small and medium-sized enterprises are struggling to survive.' Yao Lingchun said. According to Shanghai Phoenix Electric Vehicle Marketing Director Gu Youjun, since the peak season, the sales of electric vehicles have declined a lot, and he is now overseeing and visiting major markets. Wu Haijun, general manager of another company, Aucma Electric Vehicle Sales Company, said that indeed, the electric vehicle market is declining this year, and the corresponding main component-lead battery sales will definitely be affected. The insiders of Chaowei Battery, Aucma's strategic cooperative supplier, said We have not raised the price. Individual dealers raised 5-10 yuan, which may be caused by tight supply in the regional market or model deployment.　　 Since July, rumors of price increases for lead-acid batteries have been rampant, and market rumors that Chaowei batteries have raised prices have not received a response from the market. According to insiders of Chaowei, the inventory digestion strategy that started in April resulted in a slight drop in product prices. 'The market determines the price. Whoever increases the price will feel uncomfortable, and whose market share will be eroded immediately, so everyone dare not act rashly.' said Yao Lingchun, secretary-general of the Zhejiang Lead Battery Industry Association.　　 The figures released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that from January to May 2012, my country’s battery industry completed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18.5% in industrial sales output value, a cumulative production-sales rate of 97.37%, and a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.13% in the value of completed export delivery. In May, the industrial sales output value of the battery industry increased by 26.42% year-on-year, the production-sales ratio was 97.48%, and the export delivery value increased by 14.69% year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative completed output of lead batteries increased by 17.6% year-on-year; the cumulative completed output of alkaline batteries decreased by 19.1% year-on-year; the cumulative completed output of lithium-ion batteries decreased by 14.8% year-on-year; the cumulative output of primary batteries decreased by 6% year-on-year. Liu Yanlong, secretary general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said in Tianjin that the overall situation of the lead-acid battery industry this year is not optimistic. The possibility of price cuts is thirdly that the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is prominent, and the capital chain of various companies is not loose. At this time, manufacturers often adopt a strategy of rising and falling in order to withdraw funds, urging dealers to pay back. It is reported that the 'Lead-acid Battery Access Conditions' announcement and management measures have been formulated and are expected to be launched at the end of July. The detailed conditions will particularly emphasize the strict control of new projects, and it is necessary to set 20, 50 for existing, new and commercial plate manufacturers. And the production threshold of 1 million KVAH, and will put forward requirements for enterprises in many aspects such as process equipment, environmental protection, occupational health, energy saving and recycling. From this perspective, lead-acid batteries have a price increase requirement, because the elimination of outdated production capacity has also led to many factories under-operating, and the big-brand market will undoubtedly benefit.　　 It can be seen from the news of comprehensive manufacturers that after the preliminary rectification, some large domestic enterprises have increased their capital and expanded new projects in order to expand their market share. After Fengfan and Lifan invested heavily in the expansion of lead-acid battery projects, another leading enterprise, Henan Chaowei, also started construction of a 9 million KVAh new large-capacity lead-acid battery project. However, in the opinion of Guotai Junan New Energy Industry Leader and analyst Hou Wentao, the entire lead battery industry is still an industry with overcapacity. Whether repeated capacity expansion can be digested depends on the downstream automobile manufacturing industry and electric bicycles and other markets to absorb changes, but There are certain opportunities in sub-industries such as UPS power supply, mining battery products, and communication base station power supplies.
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