Lead-acid battery inventory polarized - is expected to continue to rise Lead-acid battery inventory polarized is expected to continue to rise

by:Power Kingdom     2020-03-08
Shanghai lead recently pared some early gains, we believe that the market outlook is expected to return to the upward trend, this is because, first of all, lead concentrate supplies, smelter has certain difficulty to complete the production plan, and losses due to smelting, refinery production enthusiasm is not high. Second, the main downstream factory inventory is normal, sales smoothly, there is no medium and small battery plant high inventory, sales of the situation. Shanghai lead prices in the third quarter is expected to be in power type battery consumption season, on the basis of the established five thousand closer to six thousand. Source nervous lead concentrate in short supply lead industry chain short, compared with other base metals is relatively simple, making the information transmission is more smooth. Lead the upstream raw material lead concentrate supply shortages, can saying is the consensus of no doubt. Lasts from lead concentrate processing fee for the year, by now at the beginning of the year 1800 to 1500, also from the side reflects the upstream raw material supply end tension. In the context of supply and demand analysis, if supply decreases, the price will need to rise in order to reach the balance between supply and demand. And the price is tepid, in the first half of 14 years and even fall. From the point of view of industrial chain of supply and demand analysis, the contradiction of the concentration in the downstream, lead-acid battery factories. The transmission of the downstream demand is not enough, lead to price is not smooth, price has no big improvement. 14 since the beginning of the year, a large number of factory reflect, high inventories, weak sales, weak demand. And the national industrial structure adjustment is exacerbating the lead-acid battery factories, big fish eat small fish, small fish eat shrimp, merger and reorganization. Makes the strong stronger and the weak weaker. Thus produced two giants powered battery, amd, day, both yield can occupy eighty percent of power type battery. And start metal batteries, nunn, windsurfing, camels and other major manufacturers. With consumer demand gradually saturated, the factory is also in prices for weapons, assault to capture market share. Reinforce polarized in the battery industry. Small and medium-sized factory, due to the scale, efficiency, and so on, the cost control. While make full use of large and super large battery factories, scale advantage, from the price on the power to squeeze the market share of small and medium-sized factory. Large battery giant inventory normal sales smoothly at present lead passed out in the industry of information is upstream raw materials nervous, weak downstream demand. Downstream demand is really like the personage inside course of study says high inventory? The answer is that most of the small and medium sized battery sales, inventory is high. The oligarchs further market share. This from the enterprise accounting statement, also have very good reflect as shown in figure 1. From chart 1, clearly reflects the dynamic type battery giant, amd, day, revenue from 10 years of strong growth, the average rate twice a year on average. On the one hand, thanks to the lead-acid battery industry rapid development, on the other hand, thanks to the growth of the national economy as a whole, the improvement of people's living standard, rapidly increasing demand for electric cars. There is reason to believe that 14 years, day, amd, the annual sales income grew by 10% in a conservative estimate there are still some certainty. In other words, demand or have certain guarantee. What is key lead-acid battery battery inventory situation? Large factory of inventory is a relatively dynamic inventory, cannot pure visual contrast. Yield increase with the increase of inventory is normal phenomenon. So based on the history of the inventory of sales revenue ratio for large factory inventories have a comb. Negative voice unconsciously lead-acid battery industry since the beginning of the year in the ear, if we subdivide the inventory of the negative news, from small and medium-sized factory more. Large battery factories such as day, although lawsuits and downstream processors, amd, issued a profit warning. But there is no about high inventory, sales of the news. The author also from battery plant insiders, fg inventory is normal. And start metal battery manufacturer, in particular, the camel, the latest inventory/sales also fell 5% year-on-year in the first quarter, from 73% to 68%. Sail, fell 4% year on year, from 78% to 74%. Nunn was increased by 13% year-on-year, from 69% to 82%. That price is key point of consumer choice. Relatively low price, for the market share is still very effective. End demand is still in the lead prices rise in the peak season is expected to be on the run, due to the large factory depreciate sales promotion, make it easier for small and medium-sized factory sales, inventory backlog is higher. But large and super large main battery plant fg inventory still keep in a normal level, and there is no high inventory. Small and medium sized battery negative news, excessive obscures the real situation of industry. And overall, even large factory depreciate sales promotion, is also under the condition of guarantee of profits, companies continue to survive or have a meager profit. So the demand of lead or guaranteed, only the change of the manufacturer's market share. So in sorting out the battery inventory, against the background of Shanghai lead prices in the third quarter is expected to power type battery consumption season, on the basis of the established five thousand closer to six thousand. Author introduction: Winston, new futures, assistant researcher, bachelor degree in business administration at the university of Leeds, the university master of finance and economy. Has a more solid economic theory foundation, study during travel and America and eastern Europe, the western modern enterprise management, and the socialist transition economies have more understanding and learning. Lead to study the variety of Shanghai, pay attention to lead fundamental research, trying to lead industry chain research deeply.
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