Although market demand increased by 5% in 2012, as consumers began to exchange old electric bicycle batteries for new batteries with less lead, the lead market will experience an oversupply situation this year. Especially after the entire electric vehicle industry has experienced a wave of trade-in last year, the battery consumption this year will show the most serious oversupply phenomenon in history. According to the International Lead and Zinc Research Group, recycled lead from automobile and electric bicycle batteries accounted for 35% of the total lead supply in 2011, a significant increase from 21% 10 years ago. An electric bicycle battery uses approximately 11 kilograms of lead. According to Goldman Sachs Group estimates, the total amount of lead recovered from used electric bicycle batteries this year will more than triple from 2010 to 190,000 tons. Although the price of lead on the London Metal Exchange has risen by 19% since October last year, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, with more than twice the increase in inventory, the price of lead has risen by only 1.5%. According to Credit Suisse Group’s forecast, China’s lead supply (including output from lead mines) this year will exceed consumption by 206,000 tons. This supply surplus will hit the highest level since 2007, and it will be enough to meet the needs of factories nationwide in China for 15 days. 'We expect that China's lead scrap recycling volume will increase significantly,' said Citigroup's London-based metal analyst. 'Everyone can imagine that a large number of car batteries shipped in 2009 should be replaced one after another since 2013. The battery life of electric bicycles is relatively shorter.' So from this cycle, according to common sense, two years of electric bicycle batteries Most electric bikes and bicycles will have their batteries replaced this year, but the trade-in wave that swept the entire industry last year has already taken up most of this year’s market share in advance.