There are two main reasons for the tightening of the fundamentals of the lead market

by:Power Kingdom     2021-04-21
First, due to the fire in the smelter of the American Daolang company in Herculaneum in March, production was suspended, and the supply of lead in the lead market was weak. However, the more important impact is the reduction of the production capacity of Chinese smelters, which are now in the shadow of reduced production due to pollution. Although few Chinese manufacturers have announced their production cuts with great fanfare, data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) shows that in the first four months of this year, primary lead production shrank by 0.9% and secondary lead production fell by 2.2%. Figures from the National Bureau of Statistics also show that total lead output fell by 5.2% in the first five months of this year. Obviously, lead production has been interrupted, and the subsequent maintenance plan has been advanced. Therefore, we lowered our 2012 production capacity forecast for China from 9% to 7%. The lower production capacity level and the possibility of the global market turning to supply shortages this year are increasing.  Second, rising demand caused by low prices is emerging. This led to price premiums everywhere in May, even in the precarious Europe.   China's lead-acid battery production has increased in recent months, and the first quarter increased by 6.5% over the same period last year. Despite the strong growth in production, the sales and orders of lead-acid batteries are not optimistic due to the bleak start of the Chinese automobile market, a major consumer of lead-acid batteries. However, the turning point may be in sight, as car sales in May increased by 16% year-on-year, of which passenger car sales increased by 23%. Cumulative sales of automobiles from January to May were 8.02 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%. If China's car sales can grow steadily, then our forecasts for China's refined lead consumption and global consumption growth of 11% and 4.5% respectively this year are still achievable.
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